Friday 31 July 2009

The Great Wall of Worry (updated)

"The prevailing consensus forecast of a very weak recovery is at odds with history. Never has a bull market climbed a steeper wall of worry. Despite a proliferation of positive economic indicators, the consensus remains resolutely gloomy. Bullish economists are still rarer than hens’ teeth. The average forecast for Q3 US GDP growth is an anaemic 0.8% increase, which would be by far the slowest first quarter of any recovery on record."

No trades today either. Instead I liked the above comment from Barclays out earlier. Not much use to my EURUSD trading directly, but worth keeping in mind.

Update: One trade afterall. The urge strikes again. Played a bounce off of strong (perceived) resistance. Should have only shorted 1.4270 but what the hell. Could've have doubled up, but didn't want to end the week with 200k going against me. Held onto it a bit long before it showed me my wanted profit.

All said and done: +100$ (10pips)


Thursday 30 July 2009

No Impulses! = No Trades

Didn't want to trade. Didn't see any bargain prices. Nothing expensive to short.
There was just nothing most of the day. The one bigish dip I had missed (1.4030 area) but I don't think I'd have felt urge to buy until 1.4015 anyway.

Positive:
I didn't waste any money on commission! :)

One of those summer sideline days I guess.

PS: Equities are looking damn toppish to me !!! Bad omen for EURUSD?!

Wednesday 29 July 2009

Saw Large Green Candle On 10 Minute Chart (updated 2)

Came back from the pool, ate something (salad) then sat down in front of PC and immediately wanted to trade. There was a big green candle smiling at me. The price level 1.4110 was also something I felt comfortable with and the big figure 1.4100 had held aswell as showing signs of bouncing off it.

So I took small trade and took gain after 40 seconds. 52$. An impulse that paid off.

Update: 1.4100 broke not long after my previous trade. Around 1.4080 I tried to scalp a few points. Just 21$ profit from that trade, but it was easy on the nerves showing profit immediately. Took the gain after 42 seconds. Total for day at the moment: 75$.

Update 2: Just a small reaction I played. 6pips on that trade. Just felt like it should bounce a little! Up 135$ for the day now.



Tuesday 28 July 2009

Played Smal Pullback From Resistance - Around 1.4290-95 (updated)

No trades yesterday. 30c sunny day = lake, swimming, badminton, late lunch, little time in front of pc. I did look at evening CET action, would have bought if anything, but didn't (1.4220 area).

Well today we got back to the previous resistance of 1.4290 area. I sold some short and covered for a +10pips profit. $125 for the day. Don't know if I should book this as the final for the day and quit the screens.

Mustn't let greed overcome me.

Update (17:26CET): Christ, I wish I hadn't covered my earlier short lot! Price crashed! Bought some EURUSD "after" the strong fall. I was hoping for a quick 15pip bounce! But it went down another 10 pips in a very inconsiderate way! ;) So I bought some more! (Greedy :P) And then got out with just slightly more than 4pips (well actually 2pips as it was on 200k :S). +173$ for the day.

Thought of the day: Seems to me I'm getting great feeling for the 5-12 hour swings! If I'd just stayed in my positions both times I intially put on. Short this morning. Long around 1.4150. Then today would've could've shoud've given me 140 pips! I'd have sold the level that was 48 hour resistance and just waited untill this afternoon, when I felt like buying again. Instead I'm mucking around with 10 pips here, 10 pips there. Something needs to change! As I mentioned in my weekend post: I need a scalper and an investing account. I just get so annoyed with myself otherwise. Don't know anyone who does that though really. Guess it isn't possible to implement easily. The scalping will make me miss the bigger turning points, stronger resistance areas. I'll be focussed on the short term always I think.

Okay I need to start putting down in writing where I got the "buy" or "sell" feeling. Then see if it really is more than just being lucky the last 2-3 times. It's like roulette otherwise. Just getting color right 2-3 times in a row is no big deal. At the moment we can put it down to pure coincidence I guess.










Saturday 25 July 2009

Week P/L +270$ +.6%

I had to smile when I looked at my account statement P/L.
1. I've got a day with ONE $ profit
2. I've not had a down day since before 3rd July.
3. My bias for longer periods (12-24 hours) has been correct in last days, but I stupidly never stuck with it.
4. I'm not overtrading
5. I'm preserving capital

but bad:
1. I'm stopping trading as soon as I have miniscule profits, just so I don't have risk of being subject to pain like before July.
2. I'm too nervous.
3. I'm undertrading (I think) not making use of my capital
4. I get mad for not staying in my positions longer

Well for the week that gives me somewhere around .6% return. In itself that wouldn't be as catastrophic as it looks. If it was consistent. But if you have a -15-20% return day, it would take more than a year to make it back that way.

Maybe I'm trading in such small size because I know I have no real system I'm following and I'd probably get sucked into emotional decisions if I took positions of 300-400k in first trade. After all my system is based on experience of just the period since end of May. I need many months of experience to gain confidence I reckon.

I'm considering opening a second account. 2nd account would have advantage that the realizing of ultra short term trades won't mix the profit/loss that an "investment" trade in the same pair is showing me. So I'll have one for my 12-24 hour trades and keep the other for my 1-60minute trades. Who knows, it could be that the "scalping/flipping" account helps me to trade with the "investment" account to keep a feeling for the market. Just have to watch out that 30minute trades don't start becoming investments. Big risk that for me.

Friday 24 July 2009

Early NZ - Graveyard Shift


An early NZ trade for a change. Like earlier (well y'day depending on how you look at it) my position went under water 12pips first. Bought some more. It came back up, so I offloaded the second 100k and kept the other for 15min to see if it would bounce stronger. It didn't, not as fast as I wanted anyway, so I've closed position.

Seems lots of stops got triggered below 1.42 after not so good MSFT results and in an illiquid market, or less liquid at least.

All said and done +139$.


Thursday 23 July 2009

Lots Of Trades For Nothing (updated)

#1 Trade
First trade started going wrong immediately. Price had broken out from 1.4220 area and I thought 1.4244 would be good area to short (more than 20pips out of previous range). Then it went up another 5 pips in minutes after my short. Thought ok: let this be the trade that I don't only use 100k but 200k and get all the more profit. When it went above 1.4250 I felt bit uneasy having double the size on the line. So when 20minutes later I could get out with a 77$ profit (1.4242), I thought great. Then it went up again and I felt really clever for getting out with a profit.

#2 Trade
20 minutes later it broke above 1.4260 and an urge overwhelmed me to short. Literally as soon as I shorted it shot up 20 pips within 4 minutes. Okay, down 200$, try the same maneuver as earlier and double up. It went to 1.4290 :S. As soon as it came back down again to 80 I sold the extra 100k and decided to just stick with the first 100k. I went black again for the day on paper (20-40$) but then it started moving up, I hesitated but got out.

Result of the 7 trades: paid 80$ com or more?! and me? I am up 1$ on the day. So at least I can book today as no loss. But I have no-one to blame but myself. Sucks :D

The bad news:
1. I doubled up on losers. Twice!
2.
Now I can't trade as I would if I hadn't traded earlier. I have these levels 1.4280, 60, 40, 20 in my head. I can't short easily below 1.4268 as I feel stupid if I sell below where I bought back. And I don't feel like buying. I have too many biases I think. If we went back to 1.4280-90 level I'd love to short again. But the risk is there, that we break those levels to upside and go though the big level 1.43.

Lesson Of The Day
My "system" isn't a high probability/low risk one and doubling up tends to increase my anxiety and cloud judgement and makes me forget the important technicals. 1.4268 I should have had a stop in my second group of trades there! That would have been 2 pips above the previous highs of the day.

Update! I'm so mad at myself. 1.4200 again. Maybe I can give my "gut feeling" credit for knowing that 1.4240 and above would be tough level to hold. But there's a moron inside of me that loses patience and closes the best ideas (or am I just selectively filtering out something!?). As I stated above, I never had bullish bias during the move higher. I always wanted to short. That's why I'm really mad for not sticking to my guns.



Wednesday 22 July 2009

A Day At The Lake Instead (updated)

Warm (29c) and sunny day yesterday, so I took off to a lake with a friend. She'd been going though some tough relationship things, so it was a bit of a no-brainer to go and relax with some badminton, swimming and sun-bathing and a nice dinner in the shade (backgarden) of a restaurant. I would have wanted to go swim and sunbathe anyway.

It seems to me the market in EURUSD is a little calmer (less opportunity) since holiday season is in full swing anyway and to be honest I like some movement and outside time. Weekend weather had been pretty dreadful. I needed to compensate ;)

The picture below is pretty much EXACTELY what it looked like where we went in. There was a railing & concrete path for easy entry at two different locations you can't see on this picture. Just a swan and a duck in the water along with maybe 30 people.









Small trade. A lot of trade had been going though at 1.4170-90 and when it broke 1.4220 I thought I'd give a short another go. Just took small profit as I watched it go to 1.4230 before it actually turned.





4.2 pips profit. Wow. :S Well + 44$ better than a loss.

Monday 20 July 2009

1.4230-35 - Short & Covered


Well I was pretty surprised to find that EURUSD had broken though 1.4200 early monday. I had been leaning toward feeling it was going to be around or below 1.4100.

I shorted some because 1.4230-35 was showing as slight resistance and price had shot up through the big figure 42 without consolidating. I'd expect it to do the latter.

When I had 8.8pips (88$) I took profit though. 1st trade of the week needed to be profitable. I sold into red candle and bought back when minute chart showed hesistance to break though 1.4220. I'm pretty annoyed I need to pay 2 pips on a round trip! I often only go for 10 pips anyway. So broker is taking 20% of my profit if you will.


Saturday 18 July 2009

Week P/L + 370$ or 1%






Only traded 3 days. Week up 370$.
Still down about 3'230$.

Positive:
********
A week with no rolls. (which means I wasn't in losing positions robbing my sleep)
Not one day with a loss.
7 trading days of small winnings (see other 4 below).

Negative:
*********
Small profits compared to last week.
Last week profit was close to 3% of account equity. This week only 1%.
Still down close to 10%.

Remedies:
**********
Probably taking more trades. OR if low number of quality signals: Larger trades for good signals.

Thoughts:
**********
Shouldn't overdo trying to get the market to give me back the losses I took.
Still new at FX (end of May remember). It's a whole different animal for me trading with margin and having responsibility in that way and having news moving the instrument round the clock. The temptation is more intense to gamble with higher stakes. I'll resist though. I love the open all day, always liquid part of FX though!



Friday 17 July 2009

Chronic Mistake Making (updated)

The evening trade that nearly went horribly wrong

Was in a loser of a trade for hours. Already thinking about how to explain to my blog why I had done what wrong to lose 200$ (what it was showing me at one point). But then I got into a conversation with this girl on msn and while we were chatting for an hour the trade turned green suddenly. And I was able to clear it out bringing the day to +128$. Quite a relief! Good way to end the week psychologically. But as I write this it's at 1.4108. Arrrrgh!


























pre-evening CET:
================================
The Mistakes:
********************

1. bought into a red candle
2. sold into a green candle,
3. price went where I initially expected it to, but I had sold already
4. took a short term (5-20min) trade with rational of medium term (1-2 hour) goal
5. bought in a sideways short term (5min chart) market
6. watched it go 60$ negative at one point and only took 51$ profit
7. risk reward during the trade was negative (if I took 10 such trades chances are I'd lose more than I make)
8. I was in the trade for 21minutes (yesterday most trades were round the minute or two mark)
9. I acted out of boredom I think
10. Mad at myself for closing the trade as it just keeps going where I imagined it would go

Remedies:
**********

1. Make sure I know what timeframe I'm looking for price to be reached in
2. Buy green candles
3. Sell red candles
4. Act when a breakout occurs or momentum is building


Thursday 16 July 2009

Swimming In Forex Waters (updated)

Update: Another even smaller profit-take just now. Up 69$ for the day.

Positive
*******
Two trades. Two winners.
Profit, even if small.
Small size makes me comfortable at the moment. I can build back confidence. Hopefully not ignorance and arrogance :)

Negative
********
Minisize.
Minipip-profit.
2nd trade was less probable winner, i.e not a smart move to make. No rule applied. Just feeling it must give back couple of pips.























Starting out like a replay of yesterday today. Used a 20pip break out of 15-20min range to short. Sadly sold to late and bought back to early. 4.2 pip for me. 2 pips for broker.

At the bottom you can see where I spent lunch time. 29c today so I needed to go for a cooling swim. Did me world of good.


Wednesday 15 July 2009

Needed To Take 3 Small Trades (updated)

Update 20.14CET

Just had one more small trade. Total for the day up 170$.

Good points:
******************************
  1. None of the positions was ever more than 50$ in the red.
  2. Three trades. Three winners.
  3. Sold into descending market 2 times (red candle).
  4. Signature move, i.e. selling into a short term breakout and look for re-testing of previous resistance as a base.

Negative points:
******************************
  1. Didn't wait for at least 10 pips. I could have had 10 each time.
  2. Too small size considering total account (to make me happy anyway - greed?!)
  3. Looking at all three charts I notice I'm buying back when the candles are RED. This can't be clever. Should wait for Doji or white candle.

























:S I just pulled the trigger to early once again. My view was that if we go to 1.4110 we'll quickly dip back for a test of 1.4100. So I sold some at 1.41077 hoping to buy them back at 1.41. Then I got spooked by price going to 1.4113 (or so) and then got out too early. It should have been a "safe" 10 pip move to scalp. I'm not happy withmyself. I should be sent to bed with no dinner. haha ;)

Oh I just see a pattern evolving: I like shorting into the breakouts! Whatever resistance zone gets broken by 15-20 pips I love to short for a test of the resistance as support! Just gets ugly when there's no re-test! Lucky today. As I was playing small size it's nothing really to mention proudly...




















Just sitting here asking myself why I took the (1st) trade pictured below.

I had been thinking about selling some around 1.4060 then it dropped to 1.4054. Next thing I know it's close to 1.4080. I just wanted to sell. Looking back that could have been very stupid. If there was news unfolding, some comments by a CBer I'd have maybe seen the move continue for 40 or more pips and be well pissed off.

As it turned out I got the close to 10 pips I felt were justified. Broke out 20 pips and came back 10 pips. What it does next is anyones guess. Don't know if this is some pseudo-fib rule I was implementing. But it worked. Guess any scientist would say I'm playing roulette.

No trades yesterday and this was only one today (till now).


Monday 13 July 2009

Can A Successful Trader Teach Success

I've been wondering today, if it's possible for a good teacher to be able to get me onto the path to success faster.

I'm sure many, especially new traders, who have no history in their mind of what worked and what didn't, can be much more open to teaching of specific rules. However the image of not being able to teach an old dog new tricks comes to mind for the "senior" traders.

I had read that the famous Turtle-System of trend-following had been a pretty large success for the teachers and a certain % of the trainees. However I believe that the unsuccessful ones didn't have to pay for the experience. Which I think is fairest solution.

If someone is really so brilliant at seing what someone is doing wrong and being able to not only tell them what it is, but actually get them to stop doing it - change their mind so to speak - then I think that the successful ones will be happy to pay something like a performance fee.

Sadly as soon as you offer something like that you get into murky waters regarding regulation (in the USA anyway). Would be interesting if a pro "offshore" started offering such a deal to someone also in a lax "offshore" jurisdiction. In that case a fair profit sharing or success or performance fee could be put in place and trurly offer a win-win deal.

If someone is offering a fixed price model it would be a possibility to offer a "happy-or-money-back-guarantee". The success rate is never going to be 100%. So unless you're worried that success rate is somewhere below 30% I guess you risk fairly little with such a proposition.

But there's no perfect way I guess. Assuming some rich arab has 100 million he's managing and he can get access to a successful pro trader for a measly 10k (for arguments sake) and change his trading style to get just 1% more return on his 100 million he'll have a huge return % wise.

However if someones starting such an "education" with maybe 20k or even 100k and needs to fork out more than 10-50% of his total assets, then it will take a huge amount of % increase to justify the investment.

On a sidenote: I remember one senior trader once telling me, I should better quit trading and do something else. I didn't have the courage or lust for him to explain to me why he thought so that day, which I'm regretting writing this. He obviously had seen something in my trading psychology that years on the floor had made him weary or alert to. [I think it was because I'd been washed out of an options position in a takeover candidate, taking 5% or so profit prematurely - I'd have more than doubled my total assets had I sat tight for another 24 hours. That was the worst timing of my life.]

Anyway, what attracts most pupils to a teacher is his/her performance track record. But it's a bit like watching those commercials with the muscle bodied people on the gym equipement. It's a rather slim possibility to achieve what is being shown, but it certainly can help on the path to it, should one be physically built for it. Guess it's same in trading, with certain minds you can work. With others the mind will just keep crashing. (Like I seem to do often :D)

No trade today. Went to the river for a run. Nice restaurant location you can see in the shot. Was with my mobile and I think I might have been pointing it in the direction of the sun. So low quality....

Sunday 12 July 2009

Last 10 Days Recap P/L











So black on white, well on grey, the past trading days.

Always keep in mind that account size is currently close to 40.5k $ (having paid myself 4k $ but started off with 48k $ (rounded numbers).

I mostly take positions that are 100k and then trade around them in certain cases (like Thursday) increasing size when they go against me. And reducing somewhat as soon as I can take some profit on 2nd lot.

Which is dangerous of course. I should be going for a 150 pip target and starting off with 100k then when it's 40-50 pips in the black increase it to 200k etc. But my personality isn't quite ready for that it seems. And the market is telling me it doesn't know where it wants to go anyway. So no strong trends to ride with scaling.

Friday 10 July 2009

Theory On Letting Winners Run

"In my view, an appropriately sized initial position is no more than 5% of your overall portfolio. Once you get your trade confirmation, all the analyst reports and newsletterrecommendations become moot. As we've pointed out in the past, after the first trade is made, it's all in the follow through. Your job isn't to research, but react."

For me it's also important that I have plenty of margin left to gain some flexibility and peace of mind. Nothing worse than being all in and a position going against me. Also if the price is hovering around a level and "feeling" or looking topish it's good to be able to increase a position. At least that's how it worked for me yesterday.

"investors should think of "taking" as another word for "stopping." Take a loss and you've stopped it from growing. Take a gain and you've stopped the exact reason you got in XYZ in the first place."

Yes. I always just see the 200$, 300$ or even 400$ and think that's enough for this trade, or that's pretty good for 2 hours or 20min or whatever. But I miss the point that there will be losers and I won't cut them off in most cases until they are 500$ or 700$ or even larger!!

I also change my mind on the fly about the length of time I want to hold on to any given position. If something is just going one way pretty fast and in my favor I can hold on for more pips. But if it's going slowly in the desired direction I just get fed up and pick a certain level - either price or in pips - where I am happy to get out.

With my losers I tend to want to double up. This will work in many cases if the market is in a trading range as it tends to go back to middle of the range :) . But as I saw 2 weeks ago, the day you catch a 300-400 pips move at the wrong end and start scaling in over 12-18 hours you can get seriously hurt.

I think this is also the reason the move out of range will be hard and fast in EURUSD in coming weeks. At the moment it's a good bet to buy 1.3850-39 and sell 1.4050-1.41. But that will change, no question.

"Because a big part of trading is not trading, you'll need a few nonmarket activities to keep your finger out of the fudge pot. "

I've also noticed since my "winning" streak is back on (4 days in a row) that only checking from time to time has done me a service. I get suckered into trades that don't make sense but that I'd enter just out of boredom or something like that.

source of quotes: http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/let-the-winners-run-12602/

Saturday update: No trades yesterday. The one thing I did feel strongly about was buying around 1.3900, but then didn't and watched it go up 30 pips :S Never mind. Next week will bring tons of new opportunities :D



Thursday 9 July 2009

Getting Closer To Breakeven

Put on another trade that I doubled up on, even though it was slightly against me. I reckoned it was in the zone I was happy to have 200k short. But I still took profit too early, as soon as figure was right. Day up 400$. Down 3.6k still since start in late May I think. :(

Friday lunch time update CET: :S EURUSD  under 1.3900.  I'm imagining if I still had my 200k short. It's not making me happy :D!!!! But I guess I have to learn to smile at these situations. At least I'm "guessing" the bigger moves correctly. Even though I'd have never thought we'd go to 1.4075 yesterday. I started being biased downwards at 1.3980. Just luck really I got out for that spreadsheet work and was able to re-enter later that evening to short any in the first place. 

I'm seriously asking myself how can I overcome my short term instincts to always cut the winners short. And I have been doing so for weeks now.


Impatience - Can The Leopard Change Its Spots?


Lost patience again and wanted to concentrate on some spreadsheet work I have to do in an unrelated matter. Decided to close the short even though I'll probably be kicking myself couple of hours from now.

What I factored in when I closed position was that I had missed shorting the top due to my impatience. If I had correctly timed it and sold 1.4000 then I would have had 40pips. Due to my slopiness I only got out with 20pips.

This post is to remind me to be patient. Can a lepard change its spots though?! Discipline is the key for me.


EURUSD Topish at 1.4000 !?


Well decided to sell 100k @ 1.3982. Seems it popped back up there on the chinese talk of diversifying currencies. My bet is that this nothing more than a straw fire. The chinese have been saying this for months. 1.4000 should be strong resistance. So if we don't break above 1.4000 everything speaks for a move to lover 1.39s.

We shall see.





Wednesday 8 July 2009

Bike Repair Trade

Just one trade again. Like yesterday. This time I waited longer as I knew everything was going for me: Double bottom, rapid descent from 1.39 to 1.3850 - I expected a rebound to 1.3910 level. But as usual I couldn't be bothered to wait and got out at 1.3889.

Maybe I'll start putting on 200k instead of 100k if I get more trades right in future. That way I can offload the first load when I feel like I want less exposure.

The bike's saddle that was swiped off my bike yesterday cost around 20$ (equivalent) to replace (done that). And as the market gave me 350$ today my bike is covered :D

Still down 4k. But at least I'm making progress again. Grasping at the straws...

Thursday morning update: In the end it did go to my target price of 1.3910 this morning, but I'm glad I took the trade off as I'm sure I'd have wanted to check on it once or twice in the night and not slept as well. Sometimes I guess a smaller profit is worth the peace of mind. Important to stay fresh and as unbiased as possible I reckon. 

Thursday lunchtime (CET) update: Now I'm seriously mad at myself. EURUSD is at 1.3970. I bought at 1.3854 less than 18 hours ago. I could have held on easily to this winner, even doubled up. Instead I'm now letting emotions (being pissed off at forgone profit) influence my lust to trade. I think we test 1.3940 in next 8 hours. But I don't want to be caught going short now then watch it go to 1.4010 level. I think I'll wait for a big number to be crossed again before I do something.




Tuesday 7 July 2009

Trading Break Interrupted :D

Well, watching the market with one eye very 20 minutes seems to be smarter than watching it minute by minute. For me it is anyway.

At lunch time I went into town by bike and while I was getting something someone nicked my saddle. Including the pole that it attaches to. Not only that but it started raining hard aswell. So I had the great pleasure of cycling back home in the pissing rain, water squirting at my back from the back-tire and having to be "standing" on the bike. I wouldn't classify it as the most satisfying experience to be honest.

But as faith would have it my mind wanted to put on a small trade and was rewarded. I had last seen EURUSD at 1.3976 and when I looked again it was 1.4035 or so. Thought: Ok let's have a look at the chart, seemed worth putting on the trade as there was failure to make new highs and a long-ish dark candle after the high (1.4050sh).

That all paid off with 200$. So it's not all bad today. :)

Update: Just looked at EURUSD again. More than 2 hours without looking at it. It's at 1.3967 now. I knew when I bought back that I was doing so too early but I'm just unable to watch a winner get smaller for a short time (which it was doing briefly when I checked 20minutes later), so I always get back to cash much much too early. I think I will need to take decisions and then just step away from the screen for longer! Have in a stop but otherwise let the darn things run!



Small Trading Break

As I'm "cold" at the moment regarding taking the right trades at the right time and sticking to them, I've decided to follow the FX market at a slightly further distance. Also on EURUSD we're smack in the middle of a multiweek trading range. And my bigger plan for making back the 4.5k lost till now needs a break of support or resistance to be activated (scaling in).

Just going to waste time and money otherwise I think.

Sunday 5 July 2009

Vicious Circle Escape Attempt

Thursday evening I blew the 600$ I had made after the 900$ down day. I am now down 4.5k on my account. This had got me in pretty unpleased mood to put it mildly. I needed to get out of the vicious circle of wanting to make back my losses. I don't think I could've done it easily on my own last week.

Then "god" sent someone to get me out of this dangerous situation of being alone with my dangerous mind. A girlfriend called and said she wanted to go swimming (well more like bathing), and asked whether I'd join her at this nice place she'd found 20minutes drive away. I took the opportunity and am really pleased I did. Being out in nature with someone you like and enjoying what the world has to offer is a good way to put things in perspective.

She also asked me a very good question. She has been following my trading attemps for a while now (years) and has noticed that I tend to blow it sooner or later. So she asks me: Have you ever made any money with trading? (she was being kind of rhetorical - as she knows I'm net down)

That got me thinking. Even though the result up until now is a rather clear NO there have been phases where I was getting 8 out of 10 trades right. But that's just how I've been kidding myself that I have an edge. After all what use is being right so many times on single trades if you then give it all back with the other two and some more on top!

I however remain confident that if I can discipline myself that I can indeed make money. Hope dies last ;)

Below is the picture of the place she took me to (taken with my mobile).


Thursday 2 July 2009

Unproductive

Nothing going the way I want. My 70 pip loser from yesterday would be a 25 pip winner by now had I just sat it out. Instead I've gone in and out, tried to increase a position, got stopped out, decided to realize a loss on yesterdays call. Very unwise decisions.

Yesterday I finished down 930$. At the moment I'm up 600$ on the day. So net loss of 330$. Monday was up 385$ so for week till now still up 55$. I could mow peoples lawns and make more than that in a day. :)



Wednesday 1 July 2009

The Urges


Journal Style:

09:42 CET
I've been watching EURUSD. For hours and hours. And I just had the strongest urge to sell into this strength at 1.4084 level for last 2-3 minutes (I was asleep when it went down to 1.4000 level :( and otherwise it was around 1.4030 level). I am however going to wait. The downside to 1.4030-40 seems highly likely short term. And the test of 1.4000 while less likely still not beyond the probable. Flipside: I think another go at 1.4100-10 area has occured every time we pushed into high 1.4080s.

09:47 CET
The price came back 10 pips from where I had urge. That would've been nice. But I have to tell myself I'm not looking for those trades today. I'm looking for the one I can scale into. The one that goes to 1.4030 so I can short more. If we bounce up to 1.4084-88 level again chances are we might move beyond.

09:49 CET
Might as well have tried that 10 pip'er though. Grrr. While I'm waiting for the bigger moves I need feeding (gratification & profits!).

14:10 CET
Decided to go short 100k at 1.4080.

14:13 CET
It's already bid 1.4095 now.

14:40 CET
*gulp* 1.4110 bid - should've checked figs out calendar. ADP just lit up this baby. Sticking in here for 3 hours! Time not price (stop) this time.

15:39 CET
*hmmm* 1.4150 bid - I feel a bit indifferent to the paperloss of 700. I feel slight wish to short, but I'm going to try and keep true to my new rule of never ever averaging down a loser. I'm telling myself when I do get to scale in on a move I'll blow this baby out of the water.

17:25 CET
I wonder if averaging down a loser is allowed if the market is going in direction needed. Not to sell more of something if it's going up still makes a lot of sense. But if the top has been put in... I guess I'd need strong evidence to support that before I could comit any more risk. 1.4137 bid.

17:32 CET
I think I'd fire myself from my trading account if I was not me :D. Look at what I wrote 9:47 and 9:42 - I clearly thought odds were good we'd move to 1.41 and yet I sold at 1.4080. This is just pure stupidity. Insaness?! I think my ego needs to think it can pick a top or a bottom before the market has told me. This works on small stocks when you can change psychology with a decent order short term. But not here. No bluffing possible :D

17:40 CET
3 hours of losing position. Decision time! Decision to hold on for while longer. Highs haven't been seen in over an hour. Below 1.4150 I feel ok. But it's looking like a multi hour sideways mover. Darn it.

18:23 CET
*rolleyes at self* Well 90 pip loser at the moment. But bagged 20 pips just now. So a 70 pip loser on my hands currently. Nice. :S At least I didn't go shorter at 1.4130-40 like I would've not so long ago. I waited a full 100 pips before I moved. I'm becoming a fantastic example of how NOT to trade. Or how most traders start off.