Tuesday 29 December 2009

Illiquid Stock - Trying To Bluff

I've been playing this relatively illiquid midcap stock. 70% of float is in hands of large conglomerates that don't really trade it and there's one market maker who dominates the trading in it (algo-aided)

Anyway. I have some bids in it, right. Then lunch time, out of the blue, some joker sends a limit order to sell 5'000 into the live order book (it's traded 150 shs at this point). He/she clearly had the wrong stock, cos this one was trading in the mid 400s and the limit on the 5000 to sell was at 77 or something like that. Completely off.

The order took out 560 shares or so. 300 mine. Then the stock was stopped limit down 2%. The sell order was then retracted. At that point I was sure that it was a mistake. Someone mistyping a ticker. I immediately put limit orders in the book where I'd bought stock to protect my price.

In some cases the sell order could attract further sell orders, as a lemming effect sets in. That's why I immediately put in buy orders. To let the market maker know there's demand at those price. Also anyone with a Bloomie can see what was on offer at what price to get the stock stopped. So I was pretty confident the trader who entered the sell order would quickly cover.

But he didn't. He just put bids in around where he'd sold. So I bid the stock a bit higher. Nothing happened. Suddenly I get hit and am now holding 500 shs. Decided to take out the nearest offer and print a .8% higher price (2-3% above where seller had knocked out his shares) - holding 620 shs. That finally did it. The algo trading machines slowly started putting in bids now (alongside where I had been biding). 10-20 minutes not much happened. Then I saw larger bids coming in and started knocking out the shares I'd been dealt. The earlier mistaken seller was biding I was sure, as it wasn't the market makers usual size.

All in all just over 1k for my troubles. But interesting to "play" against a real human.

Saturday 19 December 2009

Blog-Writing Saved Me Serious Money

I'm pretty sure that if I hadn't written down my rational/reasons for being stuck in the recent long EURUSD trade I would not have received the feedback that helped sway my decision to cut the loss.

If I hadn't, my loss would now be approx. 3 times what I realized and I'd probably be out of action.

So something very good can come of communicating to others the predicament one is in. Of course it's not good for the ego to write about a position eating away equity, but I now believe it's for the best. It helps to share. Like Christmas.



Friday 11 December 2009

Sold @ 1.47567 (-752.8 pips final)




Sold @ 1.47567 (-752.8 pips final, i.e 3 lots @ -251)

After a big loss they say one should keep out of market to avoid
revenge trading. I'll keep that in mind.


Thursday 10 December 2009

Improved prospects for the USD (says Barclays)

Thought this was interesting. I concur. Only big question is: Has this USD rally just started last Friday or am I going to get chance to offload my lots at 1.50?!

"2009 has been a perfect storm for the USD. The abatement of general global risk aversion and the relative US monetary/fiscal policy stances contributed importantly to the sharp decline of the USD. In our view, it will do better in 2010 as some of these factors become USD neutral or even positive. That said, we are not forecasting a major USD rally (which would require an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, a structural shock like the IT revolution, or a major financial crisis). What we are looking for is a limited USD rally that will play out largely during H1 10." (David Woo @ Barclays)

source: Barclays Capital Global Outlook published 10th Dec 2009.

Wednesday 9 December 2009

Dead As A Dodo | - 900 pips (cumulated with recent -300)

This isn't how it was suppose to go :(
Haha ;) But it's the game. Mustn't hate the other players (for selling, when I bought).

Very good reasons to sell EURUSD were:
- Greece debt rating weighing on sentiment
- Brilliant jobless numbers in the US
- A run-up that was really impressive
- Arab concrete desert aka Dubai

Now we're at 1.47. I bought (!) at 1.50 (average).

Weird is: I can't bring myself to sell EURUSD. But I'll have to, otherwise I'll get a margin call Friday as I'm allowed 33:1 leverage over weekends but 100:1 during week.

All I have to consider now is:
- Do I sell whole lot (3 lots) and realize the loss
- Sell 1 lot so that I'm clear for the weekend
- Give up FX (!) :)

I'd love to tell myself the market overreacted to this crumby little Dubai and Greece. But then again I'm pretty sure US isn't as bad as everyone is making out.

Sentiment has changed. The stock market is fair value + 20% I reckon (based on Jeremy Grantham at GMO). The dollar could see another upmove by 4-5% by x-mas. Which would wipe me out.

Hm. I don't know. I really don't. Take what I have left and run and come back after x-mas might be smart. But I'm not very smart :D

Friday 4 December 2009

Wrong Way | - 300 pips


Guess I'm kinda on the wrong side of this movement.
Still haven't covered. My average price is now close to 100 pips away (on 3 sweet lots).
I wonder if we go back to 1.50 beginning of next week or if it crashes to 1.475?

Stay tuned. :S






Image below incl. yesterdays purchase ....






Thursday 3 December 2009

Flat Morning | +1.3 pip


Total rubbish. :) Watch yourself lose close to 20 pips and take 1.3 pip profit. Job not well done. Good thing I wasn't in with increased size. I would have totally stressed myself out.

Wednesday 2 December 2009

Quick Take On Econ Situation


Just been checking out some graphs of ISM Manufacturing. This liquidity based surge seems awfully prone to some kind of flatlining (at best) or correction (at worst). But that's just my charting sense talking - the one that loves shorting into sharp rises!

Employment has been lagging according to Haver (where I nicked the graphs). And I still hear of layoffs. So the consumer oriented economies can't really take off anytime soon can they.

I have a bit of a negative bias right now. I mean how much better can econ news get with Greece, Baltics and Dubai in the crapper one part of me says. But China and India the gorillas to watch I guess. I did read the chinese business sentiment survey also is off Oct highs. Little warning signs.



Tuesday 1 December 2009

Dec 1 - Day Recap | +9.5 pips


Net 9.5 pips for the day.
Churning....




Commercials | +2 pips (1lot)


Commercial brake length trades are so easy on the nerves....

Winter Sleep Mode | +5.7 pips (1lot)


P&L: +5.7 pips
Duration: 92 seconds

Only trade in last 48 hours. Conviction missing I guess....

I've decided I'm more interested in watching an episode of "Rules Of Engagement" right now :D But will keep my eye open for some volatility....