EURUSD FX Blog

Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Dead As A Dodo | - 900 pips (cumulated with recent -300)

This isn't how it was suppose to go :(

Haha ;) But it's the game. Mustn't hate the other players (for selling, when I bought).

Very good reasons to sell EURUSD were:

- Greece debt rating weighing on sentiment

- Brilliant jobless numbers in the US

- A run-up that was really impressive

- Arab concrete desert aka Dubai

Now we're at 1.47. I bought (!) at 1.50 (average).

Weird is: I can't bring myself to sell EURUSD. But I'll have to, otherwise I'll get a margin call Friday as I'm allowed 33:1 leverage over weekends but 100:1 during week.

All I have to consider now is:

- Do I sell whole lot (3 lots) and realize the loss

- Sell 1 lot so that I'm clear for the weekend

- Give up FX (!) :)

I'd love to tell myself the market overreacted to this crumby little Dubai and Greece. But then again I'm pretty sure US isn't as bad as everyone is making out.

Sentiment has changed. The stock market is fair value + 20% I reckon (based on Jeremy Grantham at GMO). The dollar could see another upmove by 4-5% by x-mas. Which would wipe me out.

Hm. I don't know. I really don't. Take what I have left and run and come back after x-mas might be smart. But I'm not very smart :D

Friday, 4 December 2009

Wrong Way | - 300 pips

Guess I'm kinda on the wrong side of this movement.

Still haven't covered. My average price is now close to 100 pips away (on 3 sweet lots).

I wonder if we go back to 1.50 beginning of next week or if it crashes to 1.475?

Stay tuned. :S

Image below incl. yesterdays purchase ....

Thursday, 3 December 2009

Flat Morning | +1.3 pip

Total rubbish. :) Watch yourself lose close to 20 pips and take 1.3 pip profit. Job not well done. Good thing I wasn't in with increased size. I would have totally stressed myself out.

Wednesday, 2 December 2009

Just been checking out some graphs of ISM Manufacturing. This liquidity based surge seems awfully prone to some kind of flatlining (at best) or correction (at worst). But that's just my charting sense talking - the one that loves shorting into sharp rises!

Employment has been lagging according to Haver (where I nicked the graphs). And I still hear of layoffs. So the consumer oriented economies can't really take off anytime soon can they.

I have a bit of a negative bias right now. I mean how much better can econ news get with Greece, Baltics and Dubai in the crapper one part of me says. But China and India the gorillas to watch I guess. I did read the chinese business sentiment survey also is off Oct highs. Little warning signs.