Which part of the cycle are we in?

Is the question even valid?

If we were in a normal business cycle the banks would have had good performance at the outset. *Check*

We'd see a pickup of M&A activity and consolidation. *Starting to happen?!*

The late-cyclicals have only seen a stabilisation of revenues and orders on rather low levels and not really organic growth like you'd want to see. Except in Asia right? So are they going to come into the land of green shots this spring/summer? *My opionated guess yes*

But these would be the last to come out of this recession that has had a duration of five quarters.

So when will it be time to call the top. Dow 14k ? :)

Also: Economists I follow see more and more to suggest there is a broadening of the recovery.

So are we seing a recovery squeezed into a shorter period of time, or is what we are seeing at the moment normal and will it continue well into 2011? :S

If we see good activity in markets this summer the ECB and Fed will have to hike interest?

So many questions!

1st Trade of 2010

My broker has changed plattform. I now see charts with a blue arrow head where I bought and sold. Cool. Well I put my money where my mouth is (see previous post) on a pure sentiment call. The drop in GBPCHF having been too strong for my taste.

I guess I'd be okay holding this position longer in principle. But the +360 I just had to take now. Annoyed I didn't catch the 1.6165. But as I bought yesterday evening CET at around 1.6104 I won't complain.

It's kind of stupid of me though. My gut tells me a jump back to 1.64 are on the cards no matter if there's a hung parliament or not!

Edit: 1.6190 now. God I'm a moron :D

Edit 2: exact P&L

Open: 1,61076

Close: 1,61467

P/L Pips: 39,1

P/L USD: 364,36

What sucks: Cos I am below 24k USD on the account I have to pay 4pips spread or more... 70 USD of my profit for the broker :(

Sterling: Great for importing UK goods

I'm starting to like the idea of buying assets, goods in the UK!

Close to 5% devaluation just like that on some crosses in last weeks. Seems like a good idea.

Problem is, what does the UK make that I want to import? :S

Anyone got any ideas? :D

Interesting area approaching on GBPCHF 1.60. Will be interesting to see if it holds there ! Acutally more important for medium term was breaching 1.62 I guess. Think this pair is going to get me off the sidelines!

Analyst Frame Of Mind

Thought this quote was interesting.

My motto as a research analyst is, “Talk to an industry participant every day, or I fail.” If I am not on the phone or meeting in person with someone who works in the industry that I cover then I have failed as an analyst that day. So I spend a lot of my time trying to create a mosaic of research by finding as many people in the industry who are working day to day with advertisers, publishers and content creation—[people] who are excited to talk about what they do. (Brad Slingerlend, Janus)

Just one danger I see in it: getting caught in the mood of the day, as you're being influenced by real-time information and not so much long-term trends. I guess the best analysts can filter correctly and have good judgement about what an industry participant leaves out when he/she is talking.

I wish I could talk to central bankers on a regular basis (well any basis :D). Anyone who does must have a nice information head start.

Very impressed by Eike Batista

I was watching Bloomberg TV by chance on Monday. Normally I don't watch any financial tv networks anymore. Fox is too sentimental and superficial. CNBC is superficial and I don't like the way the hosts seem to love themselves. And Bloomberg, well, they're the most professional of the bunch I guess. What I hate about all of them is their stupid adverts that repeat themselves 25 times an hour!

Yes I fucking know about Bloomberg Anywhere, etc..... (!)

But on Monday, cos it was a holiday, don't know what kind actually, bit ignorant in that respect I admit... where was I ... ah yes Monday... zapped into the beginning of an interview between Charlie Rose and more importantly Eike Batista (brazilian billionaire commodities tycoon). Too my great surprise and pleasure the whole 50minute interview wasn't interrupted once! Couldn't believe it.

And this guy Eike Batista is a real genius. He had a lot of very interesting things to say about Oil (brasil will pump 6m barrels/day in future), China (will be 50% of World! GDP again he believes), Brasil (is a great partner of China and they will help each other grow rich), Populist Govts (he hates them!), Brasil credit spreads (now lower than that of Germany), Venezuela/Argentina (he feels sorry for them, cos they have populist leaders), USA (need to tighten the belt, won't be good for much growth)... 50 minutes of wisdom.

I also liked what he says about education/kids. It should never be made too easy for his children. They should have to know what labour is, what sweat is. Not to give them jobs in his billion-$ empire for starters...

So that's my rant for today :)

Some companies just need to be "recycled"

Just read this headline on marketwatch.com: Tesla charges up for an IPO

Electric-car maker seeks to raise up to $100 million. This could be first U.S. auto public offering since Ford went public in 1956.

This is how it should be. The company that got it wrong and is making the equivalent to noisy stinky steam engines instead of smooth quiet electric engines bites the dust. So from the ashes of the dirty car companies rise the next generation, future ready electric car makers.

It can have been nothing but complancency and laziness or stupidity that stopped the big car manufacturers from developing electric cars much faster?! How else could a small californian company come out of nowhere to become a serious long term threat to the petrol guzzling motors....

It's like the company I was following that makes components for CRT monitors and missed the LCD and TFT wave. Not always their own fault of course. Sometimes someone else just has new technology that is better and more effective and can't be bought in the open market.

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That aside;

I'm pretty surprised that EURUSD is where it is... 1.3861 .... glad I didn't hold onto my long EURUSD! Jesus....

Off Topic Post

Going to the dentist to have my teeth bleached (with some technology called Zoom) has changed my last 48 hours. Simple reason: I have had to cut the coffee, tea, cola from my diet. Sounds innocent and easy, but when you're hooked on 2 litres of the caffeine drinks a day the brain really sends out signals that you're changing something with the chemistry up there.

I had a headache for pretty much 24 hours. With some sleep in between. But I decided to read up on effects of cutting caffeine when "addicted" to it and the symptoms included all what I was feeling. Headaches, tired, bit achey...

Anyway. 48 hours later and after a rock solid night of sleep (8-9 hours!) I feel my old self.

Surprising what technology can do with teeth. Of course I wouldn't have needed the bleaching if Coca-cola and Pepsi didn't add stuff to their addictive drinks that discolor them... ? Guess that's another story though.

RE: Trading

Have just had 4 trades this year in equities. They were small considering the account I manage for that 3rd party and thus have not really added anything to performance.

My own account is asleep at the moment.

I did have a dream tonight that money was going to be worthless and not many of us left on the planet and the only important thing would be finding clean water, food and sanitation :S

Guess that's how they feel in Haiti. Thanks to the dream I can relate better. I was getting annoyed with all the media coverage of the whole thing. It's not that I'm heartless (not really anyway :D), but you can just get sick of all the requests for help and huge media attention.

I'm sure Africa has plenty of wars and diseases that are just as bad. That quake just happened to be nested right next to the media hub known as US of A ?! Out of sight out of mind....