GBPCHF +24.3 pips

Well sold with 24.3 pips profit. Hadn't seen much downside during the holding period.

Open time: 12:03:28

Close time: 14:21:49

P/L pips: 24.3

P/L USD: 229.31

Open price: 1.59324

Close price: 1.59567

GBP Is The Canary In The Mine! It's Dying!

Just looked at GBPCHF. Safe haven swissie the place people running to.

This looks like the first signs of major sovereign debt crisis to follow this year.

Just wonder if M&A activity will pick up now and keep shares stable, or whether financials start tanking again on crap US housing, chineses growth fizzling, PIGS - consumers not spending, UK consumers closing their purses.....

The trader in me wants to buy GBPCHF 1.5985 though. But fundamentals don't look sound at all. No idiots are selling it like they are!

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1400CET edit:

So I didn't get in at 1.5985, but at 1.5932!

I must say I've been both annoyed and happy 2x since having bought!

At the mom it's looking like breaking out of the bottoming process!

But I'll sell into that soon ...

UK joining the PIGS?

RE: UK Industrial production numbers today....

"could indicate a profound weakness in production and demand, pointing to a much weaker Q1 GDP outturn than the 0.5% q/q growth we expect. This would be consistent with Governor King's remark that the economy was "bumping along the bottom", and raises the risk of a "double dip" in GDP. "

"Alternatively, however, the January outturn could prove to be erratic. There are two pieces of supporting evidence for this hypothesis. First, the manufacturing PMI hit a 15-year high in January and stayed there in February.[...] Second, both retail sales (according to the BRC) and housing market activity (according to the RICS) were weak in January, largely on account of the poor weather, but rebounded in February." BarCap

I think I would be more inclined to believe number 1. Everyone is saving money, holding back purchases after getting caught up in the xmas shopping frenzy?

GBPCHF +13.1pips

It was showing me -350 $ after 1-2 hours. So the usual syndrome: Selling into upmove!

Open @ 1.61244

Close @ 1.61375

P/L Pips: 13.1

P/L USD: 121.44

Open Time: 08:13:18

Close Time: 13:14:34

Which part of the cycle are we in?

Is the question even valid?

If we were in a normal business cycle the banks would have had good performance at the outset. *Check*

We'd see a pickup of M&A activity and consolidation. *Starting to happen?!*

The late-cyclicals have only seen a stabilisation of revenues and orders on rather low levels and not really organic growth like you'd want to see. Except in Asia right? So are they going to come into the land of green shots this spring/summer? *My opionated guess yes*

But these would be the last to come out of this recession that has had a duration of five quarters.

So when will it be time to call the top. Dow 14k ? :)

Also: Economists I follow see more and more to suggest there is a broadening of the recovery.

So are we seing a recovery squeezed into a shorter period of time, or is what we are seeing at the moment normal and will it continue well into 2011? :S

If we see good activity in markets this summer the ECB and Fed will have to hike interest?

So many questions!

1st Trade of 2010

My broker has changed plattform. I now see charts with a blue arrow head where I bought and sold. Cool. Well I put my money where my mouth is (see previous post) on a pure sentiment call. The drop in GBPCHF having been too strong for my taste.

I guess I'd be okay holding this position longer in principle. But the +360 I just had to take now. Annoyed I didn't catch the 1.6165. But as I bought yesterday evening CET at around 1.6104 I won't complain.

It's kind of stupid of me though. My gut tells me a jump back to 1.64 are on the cards no matter if there's a hung parliament or not!

Edit: 1.6190 now. God I'm a moron :D

Edit 2: exact P&L

Open: 1,61076

Close: 1,61467

P/L Pips: 39,1

P/L USD: 364,36

What sucks: Cos I am below 24k USD on the account I have to pay 4pips spread or more... 70 USD of my profit for the broker :(

Sterling: Great for importing UK goods

I'm starting to like the idea of buying assets, goods in the UK!

Close to 5% devaluation just like that on some crosses in last weeks. Seems like a good idea.

Problem is, what does the UK make that I want to import? :S

Anyone got any ideas? :D

Interesting area approaching on GBPCHF 1.60. Will be interesting to see if it holds there ! Acutally more important for medium term was breaching 1.62 I guess. Think this pair is going to get me off the sidelines!