Gaging Important Levels With Intuition? Maybe Not, But Something Like It

Well if you're a regular you'll recognize my trades and graphs by now. I feel pretty confident buying a 80-100 pip pullback, then after pausing for 20-60min, the trade goes sour without ever giving the chance to get out with decent profit. So I double up. Then I have to wait 4-5 hours for it to get back to the first entry point. At least for my ego I can state that at both levels I chose - just by gut - the market stabilised at least temporarily...  But when I was down 900$ at 11CET I did think: How bout if today is the "flash euro crash".... and the pair moves 3-4%. I'd be knocked off my feat pretty quickly! Russian roulette trading.

Friday-Sunday Position Closed

Weekend position closed. Opened friday shortly before close...

Don't Like Gold Short Term

I think we're going to see Gold fall. A lot of people who have buying for last 5-6 years did so because they saw the state deficits/spending were just not sustainable. But look at Europe now. They're adressing it country by country and getting it down. Seems to be going pretty well. France, Italy, Spain are taking it a lot less tragically than Greece did. I'd want Gold if there was panic and civil wars across Europe. Important banks going bust. But these PIGS are going to turn out to be angels in disguise. They gave us a good fright. Now they're putting on more than just lipstick. That's why when I look at a Gold chart 73-10 I think: This is not where I'd want to be invested for next 10 years. Look at the nice pullback at the turn of the eighties. We're due for a pullback to 1000 pretty soon. I can't imagine spending cuts in the US will incite mass protests crippling the country due to the very capitalistic nature of the system. And it certainly helps looking at international companies and seeing they're yielding nicely. So maybe state spending cutbacks will reduce it slightly. Emerging markets will compensate.

Small Fish

The current totals for the day below. Two trades.

The last trade was a reaction type entry. Just feel EURUSD is going to stabilize around 1.22-1.24 and therefor feel comfortable owning it around 1.22.

Another Small Winner After A Large Paperloss

At the roulette table once again. Risk reward of my last trade can't have been very good. I was in the red by -1000$ 1hour after the US close. Went to bed watching some "King Of Queens". Always a soothing proposition. Woke up pretty early this morning to find EURUSD at 1.2222 again. I was rather surprised I had wondered whether we'd be below 1.21 to be honest. Even the S&P Futs up by 6 then. Now EURUSD 1.2282 , Futs up 8-9 points - pretty big moves.

I had formulated a plan to buy 1 lot every 50pips on the way up. But after having 100 pips on the downside that changed. Shouldn't have really. When everyone else is scared of doing something, it should give a favourable risk reward.

The chinese looking at their eurozone debt exposure (source FT) is about as relevant as all the talk they were behind the move in EURUSD to 1.50. The media talking of the chinese is usually a good sign a major top or bottom will be put in - at least that's what I'm starting to think.

Anyhow. Got out of my EURUSD trade with 17pips profit. Account now 1k in the green since last May. 

Weird how the USD was weak last year with equities going up and now weak with USD being strong. Well it's a bit counterintuitive to me. S&P Futs and EURUSD trading in tandem is something someone needs to explain to me...

Interesting Bloomberg Interview With David Bloom HSBC

I had Bloomberg -"the pulse" - on in one of my screens (kind of picture in picture). Instead of the by-now-boring economic non-event Oil-Spill they're beating to death every 15minutes, they had two currency strategists on. One from UBS and one from HSBC.

Now it seems UBS had a EURUSD target of 1.50 in DEC. Now they have 1.15! The guy from HSBC however has 1.30-35. The fun part was the guy from HSBC saying that UBS was just swinging with the market changing its mind. He made the point that both currencies are "bad" because they both have debt-problems in the background. But he thinks the US is worse off because they're doing absolutely nothing to adress the problem. His conclusion the EUR will get back in favour and just swing around like a pendulum. The UBS guy thinks the EUR is fundamentally flawed, then the HSBC guy cut in and said: "That didn't stop you having a 1.50 target last year did it..." It's rare you see the guests have a go at each other. The UBS guy just calmly said that one has to follow the money/flows/liquidity.

I personally also believe the USD isn't really a safe place long term at all.

PS: Bloomberg TV is a pain in the ass 90% of the time though. Why do they give "breaking news": Timothy Geitner has landed in London. I mean who really gives a shit. It's what he says or when it starts that is of interest. They are so effing superficial on these channels 90% of the time.

Too Human For Trading Big Time

My god do I look stupid now. Less than 24 hours ago selling EURCHF at 1.4349 (now 1.4200) and EURUSD 1.24088 (now 1.22). That means my premature closing cost me 4.5k on EURCHF and 2k on EURUSD. Job well done eh *rolleyes*.

I know it's no use regretting trade decisions. It's very hard though when looking at market action. I'm just too human for trading.