Monday, 12 September 2011

Why the Swiss Franc CHF won't be a safe haven near or even medium term

Markets have reacted quickly to the Swiss money printing. Safe haven investors have decided to look for currencies that offer the same security. And they've found interesting new places: Norway and Sweden. These two countries currencies have not reached the same overvaluation that Switzerland had seen.

The investors who are really interested in safety in times of a melt down know: the SNB is more likely to push Switzerland into inflation along with the EUR-Zone than back down. The SNB president is a former pro swimmer, who would only bend to most extreme pressures, I reckon.

I picture the situation as follows: The CHF was the fit, strong soldier that everyone wanted to protect their property/assets with. The Captain America of currencies so to speak. Then he shot himself in the leg. He won't and can't be forced into battle anymore.

So if I were a hedge fund manager I'd really think twice about betting against the SNB... Especially as the real safe haven flows have easily found a new home in Norway, Sweden - countries with similar GDPs but less fundamental reason to intervene and floor their currencies....


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