Thought this was interesting. I concur. Only big question is: Has this USD rally just started last Friday or am I going to get chance to offload my lots at 1.50?!
"2009 has been a perfect storm for the USD. The abatement of general global risk aversion and the relative US monetary/fiscal policy stances contributed importantly to the sharp decline of the USD. In our view, it will do better in 2010 as some of these factors become USD neutral or even positive. That said, we are not forecasting a major USD rally (which would require an aggressive Fed tightening cycle, a structural shock like the IT revolution, or a major financial crisis). What we are looking for is a limited USD rally that will play out largely during H1 10." (David Woo @ Barclays)
source: Barclays Capital Global Outlook published 10th Dec 2009.
if today ends up in another inside day, i can see it break to the downside hard. better close now.
ReplyDeletejust saw your comment now (dec 11th) - did it have another inside day?
ReplyDeleteFollowed your advice :D Nice call.
ReplyDelete