Which part of the cycle are we in?

Is the question even valid?

If we were in a normal business cycle the banks would have had good performance at the outset. *Check*

We'd see a pickup of M&A activity and consolidation. *Starting to happen?!*

The late-cyclicals have only seen a stabilisation of revenues and orders on rather low levels and not really organic growth like you'd want to see. Except in Asia right? So are they going to come into the land of green shots this spring/summer? *My opionated guess yes*

But these would be the last to come out of this recession that has had a duration of five quarters.

So when will it be time to call the top. Dow 14k ? :)

Also: Economists I follow see more and more to suggest there is a broadening of the recovery.

So are we seing a recovery squeezed into a shorter period of time, or is what we are seeing at the moment normal and will it continue well into 2011? :S

If we see good activity in markets this summer the ECB and Fed will have to hike interest?

So many questions!