Monday 25 October 2010

How relevant is US unemployment rate for the world or equity markets?


So the yellow line in the chart is the unemployment rate in the US in the last 50 years or so. This is what all the bears are looking at and concluding that we're in for weak times in stock market performance, as such high unemployment caps growth of companies.

They're probably right in principle. But what I miss is the global context. You have a completely new animal in the game - well four or five animals actually; Brasil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China.

Now any company doing business with those is bound to do pretty well. And of course looking at multinational companies with earnings across the globe, you will certainly find that a lot of them can compensate or even grow despite high US unemployment.

Now the big risk going forward would be if the emerging markets suddenly started contracting. But I've not seen anyone putting that argument forward. Have you? I hear and see China is cooling from +30% to +24% growth rates or similiar.



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