Wednesday, 10 August 2011

Buying Now Could Be The Proverbial First Mouse Going For The Cheese

Well the market got the Reversal I wrote about yesterday morning.

I've seen comments out from BlackRock, Henderson, Pioneer Investments saying this is the moment value investors can find interesting purchase prices.

A lot of the argument is based on historical P/Es, S&P downgrade alone not suffice to cause selling of Treasuries and panic reaching investors. However some of the above are only expecting 6-10% rally from the low. Well we've had that by today (I believe) in some markets.

Some points that make me pessimistic:

A majority of the several longterm investors I spoke to think we haven't seen a bottom yet. They're not in the least in panic mode.

There are two rating agencies out there Fitch and Moody's who haven't done the obvious yet. Downgrade the US.

I can imagine a prolonged drip-feed of negative news into the market over coming months as sentiment drops occuring feed into real consumption reduction.

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