Bad Times Bringing Out The Best In People

I was just reading an article on guardian.co.uk about the disruptions to travel in Europe and England in particular.

One thing that had an effect on me was reading that the night-flights ban would be relaxed.

It just makes so much sense to chuck certain rules overboard at certain times and go into creative solution finding mode. If you have thousands of people and hundreds of planes stuck during a day-snowstorm, then by nightfall have all the runways clear; why shouldn't you then fly though the night and get everyone where they need to be?

I think that's what our system, politics and European treaties should really be able to encourage. If you have a special situation have a brainstorming session with ideas that are out of the box and just try and get the solution.

Maybe you could argue that a lot of peoples sleep will be impacted by such actions, i.e. planes landing and taking off through the night. But isn't that what Christmas is about, sharing? Sharing a burden in this case.

In any case I feel it makes a lot of sense to let thousands, if not tens of thousands of people travel at this time. As I read the passengers whose flights are being cancelled don't stand too much chance of getting regular flights in next days, as they are of course heavily booked in any event. This snow has compounded the problem.

So yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense to give airlines nighttime slots....

Are You A Good Trader

I just made this stuff up here on the spot after being grilled by someone who wants to know if he'd invest or if a third party would invest

1. How long did you keep your winning position

2. How long did you keep your loosing position

3. How many winners did you have

4. How many losers did you have

5. How much did you pay in commission

6. How much did you make net with trading

7. How much was the total account size

8. How much leverage did you use

My assumptions

1. Answer to Q1 should be greater than Q2

2. It doesn't matter if answer to 3 is greater than answer 4, (however if you have more winners than losers, but larger losers on average, you're in trouble!)

3. Answer to 5 should probably be at least 3x answer to 6!?

4. If 7 vs net gain (6) is less than 10%, it's probably not going to impress anyone

5. If you made 10% on an account of 100'000 but used 1'000'000 (10:1 leverage) - it's not good :D

Just some things that were floating through my mind afterwards....

Chinese Treasury Selling

So the chinese are selling boat loads of US treasuries, the rating agencies are pondering downgrading US debt, the Fed is buying bonds, interest rates are going north....

and yet....

Gold is down, the USD is flat to stronger in trading....

I don't get it :S

Follow Up Review Of The Ergotron DS100 Quad Monitor Stand

As you may have read here I've been pondering how to clean up my desk with regards to screens and using the available space in the best way.

http://eurusd-fx.blogspot.com/2010/11/ergotron-ds100-quad-monitor-stand.html

Now I actually own one of those quad monitor stands and must say I'm quite pleased. It's really easy to assemble and 3/4 monitors (I had four different models, 3 brands) were easily mountable except for one old one.

Considering you can get good 22" monitors on ebay etc for USD 100 (used) and the stand costs less than USD 450 - you can get a pro trader desk for USD 1000.

Considering I almost lost USD 9000 last week (last 10 days) that's an investment that will please me on a daily basis for years to come.

I use it this way: On one screen I have the FX open, with margin, open positions, charts, on another I have 4-5 market depths of stocks I'm active in, on the third I have general news and index charts. The forth slot on the Quad Stand is currently empty. My old 19" BenQ screen had this strange stand I couldn't unscrew.

But especially when you lean back in your chair (40") the upper two screens are really easy on the eyes. However when I sit 25" close to the monitor stand I do have to tilt my head slightly backward. Maybe I need a chair that can swivel higher... Not a construction fault of the stand, more a issue of my table being to narrow, me sitting to close.

Bottom line: If you're risking thousands of USD a week, this will be one investment that will give you a nice return and make all PC-related activities more comfortable.

Lost 400 pips, then won 390 pips. Still paying the market.

Nov 23rd was the day I decided that we'd seen enough selling in EURUSD.

Sadly the market didn't agree and stuffed me with a bigger than 400pip move (from my average entry!) in dollar terms: USD 9'000 loss on 30k equity in the FX account. I would probably have watched it fall to 1.25 and been forced out.

Lucky for me the ECB decided to buy bonds more aggressively without announcing it before and after the ECB meeting this week. Sneaky move. That's the best way to catch speculators off guard. Not announcing interventions.

Of course the biggest help was the US employment report though. I wonder if it's unethical to be pleased more people are out of a job? Well I'm not pleased actually, just pleased that the market wasn't expecting it.

Long story short: I got out with USD 200 loss, 270 really, but I had a small trade that netted me profit of 70 today. Oh and you can add USD 40-50 for interest I had to pay on being long EURUSD to my broker. So lost 240 maybe.

I am relieved!

Winter Wonderland

I was pretty surprised at the size and number of icicles I saw when looking through my attic window today. I picked one off. They're the size of a sword (well very close). Much bigger than any bread-knife or sushi knife... I wouldn't want to be walking below when one of those drops!

EURUSD - Just watching and hoping we hold 1.325. Guess the weaker hands are short? Still long at 1.3425.

When You Least Expect It

I think there's an unwritten law: As long as I'm positioned in an instrument AND watching it, it won't do what I want and/or expect. It's like a phone that won't ring when you're looking at it or expecting a call.

So you can bet I wasn't expecting a rally today!

How would the rational side of me explain what's happening?

1) The German, French, UK and US economic data (PMIs, etc) were a positive surprise

2) CDS Longs are reducing positions ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday

3) EURUSD bouncing 150 pips after a 700pip move down isn't really a big deal (and still puts it nowhere near b/e for me).

4) The S&P range 1180-1200 has been broken to the UPSIDE ?! (Will be very interested to see if it holds, because that should cause some people to hop on - then again I guess that's where all the shorts had their stops)

5) The market thinks that haircuts aren't going to be in the cards near term. No blood to lick.

6) Speculation the US is about to aid Europe?! (Kind of a joke if you really think of it)

As long as Europe and the US do the Japanese move of just guaranteeing everything and not allowing losses (from sovereign debt haircuts), the system can't break.

Instinctively everyone is shorting into the big move up. I'm tempted as well because:

The minute some drizzly no-action statement comes from the ECB, you can bet your ass the CDS market will start pricing risk again.

Robust PMI In The EURO Mammoths Germany and France

All that fuss about Korea first, then Ireland, now Portugal, Spain, Italy... It's such a pain in the arse!

Another reason for sticking in my loosing position in EURUSD:

"The final euro area manufacturing PMIs for November pointed to contrasting fortunes between northern and southern Europe. Manufacturing activity remained robust in Germany and France (despite a downward revision to the 'flash' German survey), while order books remain weak in Italy and Spain (and even more so in Greece). Moreover, an improvement in the orders-stocks differential in Germany and France suggests that these trends will continue in the coming months."

I have looked at the EURUSD chart and think the short term bottom of this selling wave since 1.38 should be at 1.275. Probably we're going to meander around the 1.275-1.325 level. Just getting near enough to my entry of 1.3425 that I feel slightly less like an idiot, but not close enough to let me get out.

Funny, writing the last sentence above: There's nothing that won't let me out, stop me cutting my loss, EXCEPT my brain. I guess it prooves: Only you can beat yourself.