Sunday 9 May 2010

Not Following Intuition And Even My Weird Dreams

It's funny how I got stuck with my long EURUSD position. I had watched 1.30 break coming from 1.325 in less than 48 hours. So when I saw 1.2950-65 I thought nice bounce surely waiting here. I bought and was able to sell within several minutes for 11 pips profit. Then I watched it patiently. It dropped to 1.2920 and I decided to go long 1 lot. Within a short time it fell though 1.2900. I left it. When it got to 1.2820 area I thought : fantastic opportunity to ride it back up. My thinking: 1.32500 to 1.2820 in 48-72 hours on EURUSD is a move that needs a countermove.

As I was buying, and unknown to me, the CDS market was coming apart with sovereigns deterioating across southern and eastern europe. 

So I was long going into the Aussie/Asian session. I drifted off, just waking up a few times checking my screen hoping for 1.29 so I could knock my averaged down lots out. I would have even sold 1.287. Then I had a strange dream (Wednesday-Thursday night). I dreamt I was selling 1.2865-75 level and no longer had to worry about the position. Then I went to sleep and woke only in the european session. By then the EURUSD was in the 1.27s I believe. In the afternoon it crashed though 1.27 to 1.26 and even 1.255 briefly.

It was so annoying. My subconscience wanted out in the night and that dream put my mind to ease so I missed the exit. It's funny how that happens. We can know something doesn't make sense to be holding onto fundamentally (i.e. sovereign spreads had been increasing all weak) and yet being sucked in by price - what I think of as the sales reflex - taking advantage of something suddenly being cheaper.


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