Friday 23 October 2009

Recession Not Over - Maybe GBP Bottom Fishing Time?!


Starting to get that impulse to stick a toe in the water and go long some good old sterling!

Update! Fck it! Just watched it go back up by 40pips since this post. Note to self: More trading, less posting :D

UK economy contracted another 0.4% in 09Q3: notably below market expectations of a small 0.2% gain, and only a slight improvement from the 0.6% contraction in Q2. The UK economy has now been in recession for 6 quarters. source: BOFA/ML







Looking at this daily chart of Cable I can't quite be convinced this is a chance to buy into. It was lovely bottom back end of sep/begin oct, but I'm expecting more suffering for Cable!


^^ ICAP agrees with me according to DJ : The failure of UK GDP growth to pick up significantly amid the global economic recovery is, psychologically, very damaging for sterling in the medium term, says ICAP. "Aside from its effects on relative real interest rate expectations and foreign direct investment flows, it presents a case for UK monetary policy to remain exceptionally accommodating for a considerably longer period than either the US or euro zone," ICAP says. "Very positive outturns for 3Q GDP growth in the euro zone and US will likely compound this effect."


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