Friday 26 June 2009

EURCHF - Going No-Where Fast Now?

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF remain well bid for now after the SNB's suspected intervention Thursday. UniCredit suggests buying these on any dips to 1.5250 and 1.08. The pairs are now at 1.5315 and 1.0893 respectively. (DJ Market Talk)

That's exactely what I've been telling myself on EURCHF. This must be mass psychology at work. There's been intervention at that level so we expect more intervention again. But it's also fact that we as a mass are more often wrong than right.

The currency market hasn't seen the last of the SNB, according to Forex Focus by Nicholas Hastings. Either currency players will once again attempt to test the bank's resolve and push EUR/CHF back down or the SNB itself will chose to push the CHF even lower than where it is now. (DJ Market Talk)

I think this may take several weeks now. I guess a lot of players like me are waiting for another push lower to load up on more for future intervention or cover the shorts we have from last intervention. I doubt the SNB will push it further themselves. Fundamentals and technicals above 1.54 just aren't in their favor for the time being I believe. But I'm not authority on the subject. I do think I'd put out more shorts at 1.54 and I don't think I have the guts to put out any before. The SNB has time and speculators have financing costs, rolls etc...

09:58CET Update:
USD/CHF Seen Sideways After Recent Slip - ZKB. A recent slip in USD/CHF is due to increased risk appetite which has put pressure on CHF, Zuercher Kantonalbank says. A consolidation is still ongoing and the pair will now likely move sideways, the bank says. Sees resistance at 1.0980, support at 1.0873. Stands at 1.0893. (DJ. MGE)

So it seems my sideways view for EURCHF is what ZKB (large swiss bank) sees for USDCHF. SNB would probably be happy with that. Even though I have read that they would like CHF to be even weaker to spur exporters who are suffering. But at some point the central bankers at Fed and ECB will surely take objection to their own economy being weakened indirectly.

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