Monday 29 June 2009

EURCHF - In And Out In Chicken Size




















Edit: Just looking at the chart above on that time frame I'm realizing what a complete moron decision the green arrow (buy) was! But as you can see on the next candle next to it: there was a large move up - it just wasn't sustained. I gave up 20-30pips though. Positive: I'm short the 50k at better price...

I'm trading like a headless chicken. Instead of running around I'm trading around in chicken size (small) ;-).

You can see the actual trades below. I'd like to scale in short again into EURCHF like the strategy I explained in yesterdays post. The only significant problem is that at any time the SNB can intervene in the markets and push EURCHF to 1.53-1.54 area.

But just now when I went short again in small size I told myself: Every rational person who saw the speed and size of intervention will now think twice about taking out short position. So I'm going to play the contrarian and tell myself that the upside must be limited to 1.54. The downside I see is 1.5020 in next 20-30 days.

From my re-entry point of 1.5269 that's a 2:1 risk:reward.

One problem I see if I should decide to scale in: If intervention occurs my stops I'd put in place might get filled at prices 30-40 pips above the trigger (judgin by wednesdays action). So it's a bit problematic!


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